A House Divided: How Political Polarization & Policy Shifts Are Pushing U.S. Democracy to the Brink
America’s Deepening Divide:
The United States today finds itself bitterly split along partisan lines. Political polarization has soared to historic levels. A fact borne out by hard data. By 2022, 62% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats had a very unfavorable view of the opposing party, a sharp increase from just a few years prior. It’s not merely policy differences; it’s personal. Majorities in both parties now routinely describe the other side as dishonest, immoral, or closed-minded. This mutual loathing, what researchers call affective polarization creates a toxic climate, where compromise is rare and each side fears the other as an existential threat to the country.
Erosion of Democratic Norms: Polarization isn’t just social
It’s warping the very guardrails of American democracy. Experts agree U.S. democratic institutions have been eroding in recent years . The United States has actually slipped in global democracy rankings, now rated a “flawed democracy” rather than a “full democracy”. Multiple independent indices (Freedom House, Economist, V-Dem) all conclude that freedom and democracy in the U.S. are in decline. What’s driving this? According to a 2023 Brookings report, America is experiencing two interrelated trends: election manipulation and executive overreach.
On the election front, since 2010 many state legislatures (mostly under one-party control) have systematically tightened voting rules, politicized election administration, and aggressively gerrymandered districts. The goal, critics say, is to entrench power even if it means minority rule. For example, several states have enacted laws that make voting more difficult and inject partisanship into vote counting and certification processes. And in 2019, the Supreme Court’s refusal to curb extreme partisan gerrymandering effectively green-lit state lawmakers to draw themselves virtually unloseable districts.
The result? In many states, electoral outcomes are increasingly disconnected from popular vote majorities, undercutting the core democratic principle of fair representation. At the same time, presidential power has grown unchecked. When one party controls Congress, oversight of the executive often becomes feeble; when government is divided, legislative gridlock paralyzes any response to abuse. Both trends have left the door open for a would-be authoritarian executive. It’s no surprise that a recent study highlights “substantial expansions of executive power” in the U.S., with weakening civil service independence and even the judiciary’s impartiality in doubt . The culmination was the 2020 election crisis: a sitting president refused to accept defeat and actively tried to overturn the result; something unprecedented in American history. While that attempt failed, it galvanized a movement. As of 2023, about two-thirds of Republican voters still falsely believe the 2020 election was illegitimate, and many candidates in that party have signaled they might reject future losses as well .
Authoritarian Undercurrents:
There is a very real fear that America could be inching toward what scholars call “competitive authoritarianism.” In such a system, elections still happen, but the playing field is heavily tilted by those in power, through biased institutions, intimidation, or rule-bending, to ensure one side never really loses. Indeed, prominent political scientists warn that “America is heading toward competitive authoritarian rule, not single-party dictatorship,” meaning we risk a government that keeps the trappings of democracy but undermines its substance. The last few years provide plenty of warning signs. We’ve seen open discussions of using federal agencies to punish political opponents and shield allies, a classic autocratic tactic. Plans have been floated to purge thousands of nonpartisan civil servants and replace them with loyalists, weakening the rule of law. One major party’s leading figure openly promises to “break some rules” if re-elected, in order to “set things right.” Tellingly, nearly half of Republicans (48%) agree that America needs a leader willing to break the rules to fix the country. Almost 4 in 10 Americans overall share this sentiment, reflecting a startling openness to authoritarian-style leadership if it aligns with their goals.
Even more alarming, a significant minority of the population condones violence for political ends. “True American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country”; 23% of Americans (and one-third of Republicans) now agree with that statement. This figure has risen markedly in just two years (only 15% agreed back in 2021) . Such numbers should serve as a blinking red light: when a democracy’s citizens increasingly accept violence and extralegal action, the risk of democratic breakdown soars. It suggests that polarization has reached a stage where many Americans view those across the aisle not as fellow citizens, but as enemies or even targets.
Flashpoints and Policy Shifts:
The polarization and democratic backsliding aren’t abstract. They’re playing out via dramatic policy clashes at both federal and state levels. The most notable include battles over voting rights, public education, and social policy, often with red and blue states moving in opposite directions:
Voting and Elections: In the wake of false fraud claims, at least 19 states since 2020 have passed laws restricting methods of voting or injecting new partisan controls over election administration. Georgia, for example, cut back ballot drop boxes and empowered state boards to intervene in local election offices. Texas banned many forms of drive-through and 24-hour voting used in diverse urban counties. Meanwhile, other states (like Oregon, Colorado) expanded mail voting and voter registration. America’s “laboratory of democracy” has split into two camps, with one expanding democratic access, the other contracting it, all depending on who holds power locally.
Reproductive Rights: The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in 2022 erased the federal right to abortion, triggering a cascade of new state laws. Since then, over a dozen Republican-led states have swiftly banned or severely restricted abortion, wielding government power over personal healthcare in ways unthinkable just a few years ago. On the other side, Democratic-led states like California, Illinois, and New York have moved to fortify abortion access and even declare themselves “safe havens” for out-of-state patients. The American landscape of rights now depends on geography, a stark departure from the idea of universal constitutional protections.
Freedom of Expression and Education: Public schools and libraries have become battlegrounds. According to the American Library Association, attempts to ban books (often those dealing with race, gender, or LGBTQ themes) hit record highs in 2022. States like Florida have passed broad laws leading to hundreds of books being pulled from school shelves and strict limits on classroom discussions of gender, sexuality, and even history. Educators in some states face gag rules about “divisive concepts,” while other states push back by mandating inclusive curricula. These policy swings reflect an authoritarian impulse in certain quarters: the urge to control information and stifle dissenting views in the name of ideological purity.
LGBTQ+ Rights: Another fissure has opened over transgender rights and gay rights. In the past two years, numerous states (primarily in the South and Midwest) enacted laws to ban gender-affirming healthcare for transgender youth, bar trans athletes from school sports, and even prohibit discussion of gender identity in classrooms. At the extreme, one proposal in 2023 (in Idaho) sought to make it a felony for parents to take trans youth out-of-state for care. Conversely, states like Minnesota and Colorado have declared themselves refuges for trans individuals and their families. Such diametrically opposed legislation, often couched in moralistic terms, further exemplifies how polarization is fueling a policy civil war, with basic rights in the balance.
Citizens across the U.S. participating in a massive “No Kings” protest in 2025, a grassroots rebuke of rising authoritarian politics.
The Rapid Tilt Toward “Illiberal” Democracy:
The cumulative effect of these changes is a quickening drift toward illiberal democracy, a system where elections happen but rights and checks are eroded. Freedom House’s scoring for the U.S. has declined in recent years on measures like electoral fairness and equal treatment under the law. The State Democracy Index developed by political scientist Jake Grumbach reveals a stark pattern: since 2010, many states (particularly those under GOP control) have seen drastic drops in democratic performance, while others improved. Grumbach found that “Republican control of state government dramatically reduces states’ democratic performance,” whereas partisan polarization itself was a less important factor. In plainer terms, one party’s recent strategy, prioritizing victory even at the expense of democratic norms, is largely responsible for the backsliding in several states.
This aligns with earlier research showing a faction of the Republican base increasingly ambivalent about democracy when confronted with demographic change (“ethnic antagonism” correlating with reduced commitment to democracy). None of this is to say the United States is doomed to authoritarianism. American democracy still has strong institutions and a vibrant civil society. The 2022 midterm elections, for instance, saw election-denier candidates for key statewide offices (governors, secretaries of state) largely defeated, and losing candidates from both parties generally conceded gracefully. Courts and election officials resisted unprecedented pressure in 2020–2021. And tellingly, the public hasn’t been silent either. Millions of Americans have mobilized in protest to defend democratic norms; from the 2020 racial justice marches to the enormous nationwide “No Kings” rallies in June 2025, when citizens in over 2,000 locations protested against perceived authoritarian moves by the government. These demonstrations, with signs declaring “No Kings” and even a giant baby-Trump balloon floating above crowds, underscore that many Americans are alarmed enough to take to the streets in defense of their freedoms.
At a Crossroads:
The United States is in the midst of a high-stakes test. The mounting polarization and rash of anti-democratic policy shifts have set off alarms from Washington think-tanks to international watchdogs. Democratic decline, once thought impossible in America, is now a recognized reality. Whether this slide continues, potentially accelerating toward an authoritarian outcome, or whether it is arrested and reversed, depends on choices made in the next few years. Will leaders put country over party when it matters most? Will citizens reject the siren song of extreme partisanship in favor of common ground? There are glimmers of hope: bipartisan efforts to reform the Electoral Count Act (to prevent another January 6 scenario), accountability for some of the January 6 insurrectionists, and robust voter turnout even amid attempts at suppression. But make no mistake, the road ahead is perilous. As scholars Levitsky and Ziblatt warn, democratic erosion often happens “in increments,” legally and insidiously, until one day the democracy is a shell of its former self. Americans today find themselves in an environment where nearly a quarter of their neighbors think political violence might be justified, and where a major party’s leading candidate openly praises dictators and muses about defying the Constitution. It is a moment for vigilance and civic engagement. The United States has navigated civil strife and democratic growing pains before , from Reconstruction to McCarthyism. Each time, renewal came through a reassertion of core values and often massive public pressure for change. If the country is to avoid a quick slide into a degraded democracy or soft authoritarianism, a similar reawakening of democratic spirit is needed now. The stakes could not be higher: America must decide whether its government will be of, by, and for the people – or whether raw power and tribal loyalty will snuff out the great experiment of self-rule. The choice, as always, lies with We the People.
Sources:
Understanding democratic decline in the United States | Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/articles/understanding-democratic-decline-in-the-united-states/
Political Polarization in the United States | Facing History & Ourselves https://www.facinghistory.org/resource-library/political-polarization-united-states
Partisan Hostility Grows Amid Signs of Frustration With Two-Party System | Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/as-partisan-hostility-grows-signs-of-frustration-with-the-two-party-system/
The Path to American Authoritarianism: What Comes After Democratic Breakdown https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/path-american-authoritarianism-trump
Threats to American Democracy Ahead of an Unprecedented Presidential Election - PRRI https://prri.org/research/threats-to-american-democracy-ahead-of-an-unprecedented-presidential-election/
Florida leads the US in the sharp rise in books banned in schools https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/11/19/dibi-n19.html
"No Kings" anti-Trump protests draw millions, in photos https://www.axios.com/2025/06/14/no-kings-protests-usa-june-14-trump-military-parade